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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEarnings to be a key driver of equities this year: Merrill's Marci McGregorLauren Goodwin, New York Life Investments economist, and Marci McGregor, senior investment strategist for the chief investment office at Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss markets, the Fed, and the potential of the rally resuming.
Persons: Merrill's Marci McGregor Lauren Goodwin, Marci McGregor Organizations: New York Life Investments, Bank of America Private Bank Locations: New York, Merrill
A handful of drivers will keep the American economy humming along, said Jose Rasco, chief investment officer of the Americas at HSBC's wealth division. On the cyclical front, Rasco expects growth to cool as the effects of higher rates become fully felt. "Those four themes suggest to me that's how we avoid recession," said Rasco, a Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch alum. Bonus: Presidential election year While not exactly an investment trend, Rasco also noted that a big part of his short-term optimism toward U.S. stocks stems from the looming presidential election. Data shows U.S. stocks tend to outperform in presidential election years.
Persons: Jose Rasco, Rasco, Merrill Lynch, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, CNBC Pro, Federal, Lehman Brothers, U.S, U.S . Research, BlackRock, HSBC Asset Management Locations: New York City, Americas, China, Mexico, U.S
Read previewLooking at the headline numbers, the US labor market is booming. OVOM Research/Bullandbearprofits.comWolfenbarger's views in contextOther market observers have started to warn of a weakening labor market in recent months. Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, shared several indicators in a client note earlier this month warning of a job market slowdown ahead. Pantheon MacroeconomicsBut whether the labor market actually weakens materially remains to be seen. AdvertisementIf Wolfenbarger is right and the labor market falls apart in short order, it could catch an exceptionally bullish market off guard.
Persons: , Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, Louis, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson, There's Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Business, Labor Statistics, Fed, Conference, Treasury, OVOM, Pantheon, National Federation of Independent
The big storyTick-tock on TikTokChelsea Jia Feng/BITikTok's time in the US could soon be on the clock. When it's all said and done, a TikTok ban could be in place before the week's end. Business Insider's Peter Kafka explains why the TikTok ban, while more imminent than ever, still has a long way to go . A TikTok ban would benefit one familiar face in social media, though, writes BI's Katie Notopoulos . YouTube Shorts, too, stand to grab more attention after a TikTok ban.
Persons: , Caitlin Clark's, Chelsea Jia Feng, ByteDance, Joe Biden, it's, Business Insider's Peter Kafka, Michael Beckerman, TikTok, hawking, BI's Lindsay Dodgson, outperforming, Katie Notopoulos, Merrill Lynch, Tyler Le, Andy Sieg's, Merrill, Lindsay Hans, Eric Schimpf, It's, Steve Cohen's, Grzegorz Wajda, Hokyoung Kim, Nordstrom, Tesla, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, Nike, Bloomberg Intelligence, YouTube, Big Tech, New York Stock Exchange, NYSE, Chelsea, Getty, Walmart, BI, Costco, Amazon, Motors, Spotify Locations: Americas, TikTok, Merrill, China, American, New York, London
Thirteen months ago, Andy Sieg unexpectedly left Merrill Wealth Management to run Citi's ailing wealth unit. His replacements, Lindsay Hans and Eric Schimpf, had big shoes to fill. Hans and Schimpf were company veterans but lesser known before they were anointed to lead the $3 trillion wealth business attached to behemoth Bank of America. Schimpf is more soft-spoken than his cohead Hans, who was promoted to run the private wealth business one month before Sieg left. AdvertisementMerrill has the benefit of being part of a bank with some 69 million consumer bank clients.
Persons: Andy Sieg, Lindsay Hans, Eric Schimpf, Merrill, Hans, Schimpf, Sieg, Lindsay, it's, Sieg's, Louis Diamond, Schimpf's, Hans said, AdvisorHub Organizations: Service, Merrill Wealth Management, behemoth Bank of America, Business, Merrill, Army, UBS, Schimpf, Northeast, Merrill . Bank of America, Bank of America, Customers, Bank of, First, JPMorgan Locations: Los Angeles, Coast, New York City, Nevada, First Republic, Merrill
Citi's wealth unit has seen at least 11 senior execs exit since Merrill Lynch veteran Sieg joined in September. The latest departure is David Bailin, chief investment officer for the global wealth division, who announced his departure on Monday. Sieg's mandate is to turn around the wealth business, which was barely profitable this past quarter. Sieg also plans to expand Citi's already successful wealth business in Asia. At least two other senior Asia executives have left.
Persons: Andy Sieg, Merrill Lynch, Sieg, David Bailin, Bailin, Fraser, Andy, Mark Mason, Shyam Sambamurthy, Merril Lynch, Don Plaus, Hale Behzadi, Citi David, Eduardo Martinez Campos, Keith Lee Hong, Fernando Lopez Munoz, Luigi Pigorni, Jeff Sutton, Eduardo, Seamus Yin, Hayley Cuccinello Organizations: Citi, Business, Bankers, Citi Wealth, Citi Global Wealth, North America, Eduardo Martinez Campos Head, Mark, Mark Mills Regional, Fernando Lopez Munoz Head, Jeff Sutton Global, Eduardo Ventura, West Locations: Asia, Hong Kong, Singapore, Keith Lee Hong Kong, Mark Mills, Shyam Sambamurthy South Asia, America, West China, hcuccinello@businessinsider.com
Tesla's awful 2024 is getting much worse
  + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +7 min
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Tech: A "social walkie-talkie" app is the newest thing tech insiders are excited about . Tesla's awful 2024 got much worse this week when the company cut 10% of its workforce , and a major executive resigned after 18 years at the EV maker. AdvertisementSlaven Vlasic/Getty Images for The New York Times; Chelsea Jia Feng/BIIn the meantime, Tesla's stock keeps falling. Even worse, people who are in the market for EVs aren't necessarily interested in Teslas .
Persons: , NASA's Chandra, Tesla, we've, Elon Musk, Steve Granitz, Scott Olson, Jia Feng, Graham, Elon Musk's, robotaxis, Slaven, Chelsea Jia Feng, Tesla's, Musk, Andy Sieg, Merrill Lynch, Abanti Chowdhury, who's, Piper Sandler, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Service, Business, Tech, Adobe Stock, The New York Times, EVs, Teslas, Trump, SWANSON, Apple, Microsoft, BI, CNBC, Economy Summit Locations: Chelsea, China, Teslas ., States, New York, London
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewAndy Sieg has been quick to make his mark on Citi's ailing wealth unit since taking over the business in September. Some of his efforts are paying off, such as pushing investment products for existing clients to reduce reliance on loans and deposits. AdvertisementIn late September, Citi promoted its North American investment head, Kris Bitterly, to a new role overseeing investments globally. Adding investment assets has become a bigger part of private banker bonuses, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Persons: , Andy Sieg, Mark Mason, Mason, Jane Fraser, Fraser, Kris, Sieg, Hale Behzadi, Merrill Lynch, Don Plaus Organizations: Service, Revenue, Business, Citi, London, North, Wall Street
About 45% of changes to S&P 500 analysts' earnings estimates are upgrades, as shown in the chart below, down from 50% in early 2023. AdvertisementSociete GeneraleHistorically, analyst optimism has been a good indicator for the economy's direction. Below is the S&P 500's year-over-year percentage change along with the analyst optimism measure. He says the S&P 500 is in a bubble fueled by AI optimism and could fall as much as around 60%. He sees potential downside of 39% for the S&P 500.
Persons: , Albert Edwards, Edwards, Powell's, Ed Yardeni, Let's, There's, Jeremy Grantham, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch Organizations: Service, Societe Generale, Business, Street, Nasdaq, Generale, Conference, Institute for Supply, subsiding, Fed, repo, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bears, Rosenberg Research, policymaking
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with NFJ Investment's John Mowrey, Merrill's Marci McGregor and Requisite's Stephanie LinkNFJ Investment's John Mowrey, Merrill's Marci McGregor, and Requisite's Stephanie Link, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss market reaction after the Fed's latest statements leaving investors unsure about rate cuts.
Persons: NFJ Investment's John Mowrey, Merrill's Marci McGregor, Stephanie Link NFJ, John Mowrey, Stephanie Link
The central bank's current chief, Jerome Powell, is yet to defeat his mythical beast — and Wall Street is getting worried. Powell warned on Wednesday that the Fed's fight against inflation isn't over after annualized price growth accelerated to 3.2% in February. AdvertisementRaising the alarmBank of America analysts have suggested that stubborn inflation could mean the Fed doesn't start cutting rates until March next year. It's no wonder, then, that investors are waiting impatiently for the Fed to cut rates. Fundstrat's famously bullish boss, Tom Lee, proclaimed this week that it's dropping "like a rock" and the first rate cut is still likely to be in June.
Persons: , Paul Volcker, Jerome Powell, Powell, Greenlight Capital's David Einhorn, Einhorn, Greenlight, Dad, Robert Kiyosaki, Gary Shilling, Julia La Roche, We've, Merrill Lynch's, they've, Shilling, It's, Fundstrat's, Tom Lee Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, of America, CNBC, Trust, Wall Street, Fed
According to Bank of America, valuation levels explain 80% of the market's return over a 10-year period. Bank of AmericaThere are many ways to measure valuation levels in the overall market. Hussman says it's the most accurate indicator of future market returns that he's found. AdvertisementThe Conference BoardThird, the number of US states with a rising unemployment rate is spiking, meaning that the overall unemployment rate should see further upside. BullAndBearProfits.comThe US unemployment rate is already on a slight uptrend, having climbed from 3.4% in April 2023 to 3.9% as of February.
Persons: , Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, John Hussman's, he's, Warren Buffett, Wolfenbarger, Stocks, Woflenbarger, Cam Harvey, Claudia Sahm, Louis Fed, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, David Rosenberg, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, America's Savita Subramanian, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business, JPMorgan, National Federation of Independent Business, Board, Treasury, Bank, America's
Most banks, including UBS and Morgan Stanley, refer clients to third-party consultants to broker deals with auction houses. The bank secured a minimum sale price guarantee and negotiated how the house would market the painting. Courtesy of Bank of AmericaThe bank typically approaches two to three auction houses, such as Christie's, Sotheby's, and Philips. You've got to look at it in the holistic context of the sales strategy and also the financial terms," Watson explained. Advertisement"We try to get them to sharpen their pencil while we still have leverage with the other houses," Watson said.
Persons: Bank of America's Drew Watson, Watson, Morgan Stanley, Henri Rousseau, Whitney, Les, Drew Watson, Price, You've, Merrill Lynch, Birkin Organizations: Service, Bank of America's, UBS, Bank of America, Bank of, of America, Christie's, Philips Locations: Bank
Hussman FundsThese levels indicate the S&P 500 is likely to return around -5% annualized over the next 12 years, according to Hussman's math. AdvertisementBy the time the current market cycle bottoms out, the S&P 500 could well have fallen by 50%-70%, Hussman said. He predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 33% over the past year.
Persons: , John Hussman's, Hussman, he's, we've, Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, There's, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's, Gary Shilling Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment Trust, Business, Exchange, Federal Locations: Miami
Here are six recent bubble warnings from experts this week:Advertisement1. "We are nonetheless in a market bubble." Paul Dietrich"The Stock Market Bubble Is About to Burst — Look Out!" AdvertisementGrantham also suggested the AI craze would end and bring the stock market down with it. Michael GayedGayed flagged the recent surge in gold, utility stocks, and long-term Treasury bonds as evidence of mounting market jitters in an InvestorPlace op-ed this week.
Persons: , David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Rosenberg, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth, Jeremy Grantham Stocks, Grantham, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Larry Summers, Summers, Michael Gayed Gayed Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Business, Rosenberg Research, North, Bloomberg, Bank of America, Tidal Locations: North American
Just because the current valuation backdrop isn't as extreme as 1999-2000, we are still in a market bubble, and valuations are even more stretched today than they were at the market peaks in 2007, 1990, and 1980." Rosenberg ResearchSecond, the S&P 500 is outperforming the HYG/TLT Ratio. AdvertisementRosenberg ResearchAnd third, even tech stocks, which have been overwhelmingly supporting the S&P 500, appear to be running out of gas, Rosenberg said. The same goes for Paul Dietrich, the chief strategist at B. Riley Wealth, who says the S&P 500 could fall 49% when the current bubble pops. The bull market has thrown egg onto their faces again and again: since the October 2022 lows, the S&P 500 is up a whopping 42%.
Persons: , David Rosenberg isn't, Merrill Lynch, Rosenberg, he's, manias, HYG, Michael Hartnett, Jeremy Grantham, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth, Dietrich, Grantham, Carol Schleif Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business, Equity Model, Dow Jones, Dow Transports Index, Bank of America's, Bank, America, BMO Family Office
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSmall caps still look like good long-term play despite Russell dip, says BofA's Chris HyzyChris Hyzy, Merrill & BoA chief investment officer, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss finding opportunity in the Russell 2000 and he offers his market playbook.
Persons: Russell, Chris Hyzy Chris Hyzy, Merrill
Alpha capture strategies take inputs from sources like human traders, market data, sell-side research, and more and then use a systematic process to create a portfolio that is efficiently sized and hedged. CenterBook uses trading data from dozens of external firms to create its portfolios, while Norias will create its book off the ideas of its fundamental analysts. Meanwhile, Man Group is building out an alpha capture team within its AHL unit's special strategies team, a recent job posting states, and Squarepoint is doubling its team, finding external managers for its buy-side alpha capture program. "It is a way for them to increase their capacity and take in more assets," said Kevin Lyons, senior investment manager at Abrdn, about the largest platforms growing their internal alpha capture capabilities. AdvertisementThe alpha capture OGIt can all be tied back to the success of the original mainstream alpha capture strategy: Marshall Wace's TOPS, which stands for Trade Optimized Portfolio System.
Persons: , Marshall Wace, Doug Haynes, Norias, Basil Qunibi, Squarepoint quant Warren Touwen, Merrill Lynch, Squarepoint, Touwen, Kevin Lyons, Marshall, Anthony Clarke, Cameron Hight, Hight, it's, headhunter Organizations: Service, Business, CenterBook Partners, Research, Investors, AHL, TOPS Locations: Austin, Abrdn, London
Stocks may crash 30% and a recession could hit within months, Gary Shilling said. Shilling predicted the housing market would rebound in time, and dismissed de-dollarization fears. AdvertisementA legendary market prophet has warned that overpriced stocks may come crashing down, and a recession might strike within months. "Stocks are very, very expensive now" relative to both corporate earnings and rival assets like Treasury bonds, Gary Shilling recently told the Retirement Lifestyle Advocates radio show. The president of A. Gary Shilling & Co. is known for making several prescient market calls over the past four decades.
Persons: Gary Shilling, Shilling, , Merrill Lynch's, bitcoin, It's, there's Organizations: Service, Polaroid, Federal Reserve, Fed, Companies, Homes, greenback
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. What's on deck:This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. The big storyAI (literally) in your pocketTech workers are criticizing Humane's hotly anticipated Ai pin. AdvertisementIn fact, heavy hitters like legendary investor Vinod Khosla believe that AI devices will completely change how we interact with technology. Humane's Ai Pin, which can project text onto users' hands and translate voice messages, didn't get a warm welcome when it launched late last year .
Persons: , Oompa, I've, Willy Wonka, Elon Musk, Sam Altman, Humane's, Vinod Khosla, Samantha Stokes, Vishal Persaud, Khosla, Ai, didn't, Tim Cook, Salesforce's Marc Benioff, OpenAI's Sam Altman, Franck Robichon, Paul Krugman, shouldn't, we're, Wells, Bank of America's Merrill, Bitcoin, Tyler Le, maven, Alexei Navalny's, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb, George Glover Organizations: Service, Business, Humane, Khosla Ventures, Rabbit, Bank of America's, Wall, The New York Times, WW, SEC Locations: Franck, Wells Fargo, New York, London
Read previewAmerican consumers have staved off a recession by relentlessly spending despite soaring inflation, surging interest rates, multi-industry turmoil, and wider economic jitters. AdvertisementBurry predicted that dwindling savings and ballooning debts would choke consumer spending, eroding corporate earnings and sparking a wider recession. That's going to lead to a retrenchment in consumer spending as we get into the new year." That "brings us just a little closer to the consumer recession that nobody believes is going to happen," he added. "With those sources of funding largely exhausted, consumer spending will no doubt grow more slowly than after-tax incomes in future years."
Persons: , Here's, Michael Burry, Elon, Elon Musk, Spencer Platt, Carl Weinberg, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Rosenberg, Gary Shilling, Merrill Lynch's, who's, Shilling Organizations: Service, Business, Twitter, Scion Asset Management, Elon Musk, Getty, Rosenberg Research, North Locations: North American
Wells Fargo and Bank of America's Merill will be offering bitcoin ETFs to clients, per Bloomberg. Morgan Stanley is another large firm looking into offering spot bitcoin ETFs, Coindesk reported. "Spot bitcoin ETFs are available for unsolicited purchases through an advisor with Wells Fargo Advisors or through our online WellsTrade platform," Sarah Kerr, a Wells Fargo spokesperson, confirmed to Business Insider. With bitcoin ETFs, retail investors can get exposure to the cryptocurrency's price movements without having to directly buy bitcoin through a less regulated exchange. In the weeks since US regulators approved 11 spot bitcoin ETFs in January, the investment vehicles saw record-high trading volumes.
Persons: Wells, Morgan Stanley, , Bank of America's Merrill, Wells Fargo, Sarah Kerr, Merrill, Coindesk, Bloomberg's James Seyffart, Janel Jackson Organizations: Bank, America's, Bloomberg, Service, Bank of America's, SEC, Advisors, Business, Vanguard Locations: Wells Fargo, Wells
CNN —In a surprise move, an Illinois judge has removed former President Donald Trump from the state’s ballot based on the 14th Amendment’s so-called “insurrectionist ban.”The decision is paused, giving Trump a short period of time to appeal. “The Illinois State Board of Election shall remove Donald J. Trump from the ballot for the General Primary Election on March 19, 2024, or cause any votes cast for him to be suppressed.”The judge stripped Trump from the Illinois ballot one month after the anti-Trump challenge was dismissed by the Illinois State Board of Elections. Illinois is now the third state where Trump was booted from the ballot, after Colorado and Maine. But those decisions were paused pending the appeal of the Colorado case to the US Supreme Court. Trump can appeal the judge’s decision in Illinois state courts.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Tracie Porter, Colorado’s, , ” Porter, Donald J, , Porter, Jose Luis Magana, Nicholas Nelson, ” Nelson, Adam Merrill, ” Merrill, CNN’s Katelyn Polantz, Eric Bradner Organizations: CNN, Trump, Colorado Supreme, Illinois State, AP Trump, GOP Locations: Illinois, Colorado, Cook, Maine, Michigan , Minnesota, Oregon, Washington, ” Illinois
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with SoFi's Liz Young and BofA's Marci McGregorLiz Young, SoFi and Marci McGregor, Merrill and BofA private bank, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss their expectations for the continuation of the market rally and their broader market outlook.
Persons: SoFi's Liz Young, BofA's Marci McGregor Liz Young, SoFi, Marci McGregor, Merrill
In today's big story, we're looking at the reshuffling of top executives at two of the biggest US banks . Viswas Raghavan, JPMorgan's top dealmaker, has joined Citi as its head of banking and executive vice chair, reporting directly to CEO Jane Fraser. The move is a big deal, but even more shocking since Raghavan was just promoted to be the sole head of JPMorgan's deals business. Since high interest rates aren't stopping stocks from reaching record highs, cuts might not come at all this year , according to analyst Jim Bianco. Market vet Ed Yardeni said interest rates are actually in a sweet spot for stocks, similar to the late '90s.
Persons: Viswas Raghavan, Jane Fraser, Raghavan, Filippo Gori, Doug Petno, Insider's Reed Alexander, Patrick T, Fallon, Fraser, Merrill Lynch, Andy Sieg, Warren Buffett, Warren, Berkshire Hathaway's, Jim Bianco, Ed Yardeni, Gemini, Demis Hassabis, Long, Alyssa Powell, they've, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock Organizations: Citi, JPMorgan, Warren, Warren Buffett REUTERS, Chip, Berkshire, Buffett, Research, Wall, BI, Google, eBay Locations: Bronx, Gori, Rivian, New York, London
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